Our Essay on Scientific American
China’s population began shrinking in 2022 and could fall below one billion by 2100. While this raises questions about labor supply and aging, careful policy and societal adaptation could manage the transition. Our article explores how fertility trends, dependency ratios, and demographic shifts shape China’s population future.
China’s population, long the largest in the world, began shrinking in 2022. United Nations projections suggest it could fall from 1.4 billion today to as low as 770 million by 2100, raising concerns about labor supply, economic growth, and the care of an aging population.
In our Scientific American article, we argue that population decline need not be a crisis. A smaller, stable population could still support economic productivity and social well-being, provided policies and societal adaptation keep pace. This includes extending working years, improving childcare, supporting work-life balance, and facilitating fertility decisions.
China’s demographic history—from the one-child policy to recent pronatalist measures—illustrates how fertility, mortality, and policy interact to shape population structure. Population pyramids and dependency ratios reveal the timing and magnitude of shifts in age composition, highlighting opportunities for planning rather than alarm.
Ultimately, population size alone does not determine societal outcomes. With careful management and adjustment, China’s population decline could be navigated in a way that maintains living standards, meets care needs for older adults, and informs demographic strategies for other countries facing similar trends.
You can read the full article here. An related op-ed essay here.
This story is featured in Princeton Alumni Weekly and gives a behind-the-scenes look at how I teamed up with my collaborator, Lex Rieffel. Check it out here. A fun twist: the journalist who wrote the piece was one of the students in a class I TA’d—small world!